On 7 August the Lebanese government ordered the Iranian backed Shi’a jihadist organisation Hezbollah to disarm. Hezbollah in turn threatened to overthrow the Lebanese government and re-ignite the 1975-90 civil war which cost an estimated 150,000 lives. It even hinted at igniting a broader Shi’a-Sunni war across the Middle East.

Lebanon is critical to the survival of Christians in the Middle East

Lebanon has been one of the last places of refuge left for Christians fleeing jihadist violence in the Middle East. When jihadists began attacking churches in Iraq two decades ago huge numbers of Christians fled to Syria. Then in 2013 when Islamic State and al-Qaeda (under the name al Nusra Front – the forerunner of HTS who now control Syria) spread across the border into Syria, Christians fled to Lebanon.

Although Lebanon’s population is a delicate balance of Christians, Sunni and Shi’a Muslims plus smaller numbers of Alawaites and Druze, it has historically had by the far the highest percentage of Christians of any country in the Middle East. Its religious balance is reflected in the constitution which requires the President to be a Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker a Shi’a Muslim.

However, as previous Lindisfarne Analysis have explained (HERE and HERE), that balance has in recent decades been massively undermined by Hezbollah which has refused to disarm. It claims the Taif Agreement which ended the Lebanese civil war and required all militant groups to disarm doesn’t apply to it. It also exerts a stranglehold on the Lebanese government by seeking to dictate who is elected as the President, Prime Minister and Speaker.

What has just happened and why

Recent events have severely weakened Hezbollah. It’s main backer is Iran which established it four decades ago with the stated aim of spreading the Iranian Islamic revolution i.e. turning Lebanon into a mini-Iran. However, Iran has been massively weakened by the US air strike on its nuclear programme, meaning it can no longer use this as diplomatic blackmail. Hezbollah’s other main backer was Syria’s Assad regime which provided a land route for Iran to supply missiles to Hezbollah. However, last December Assad’s government was toppled by the Sunni jihadist group HTS who are bitter enemies of Hezbollah.

The upshot of all this was that in January Hezbollah were unable to secure the election of their preferred candidate for either President or Prime Minister. In fact, Lebanon’s new President, former army chief Joseph Aoun pledged to ensure that that the Lebanese state had "the exclusive right to bear arms", a not unreasonable pledge in a democracy, but one which effectively meant disarming Hezbollah. This has sent Hezbollah into a blind fury, including threatening to reignite the Lebanese civil war and even a wider Shi’a-Sunni conflict across the Middle East.

Disarming Hezbollah and returning Lebanon to being a functioning pluralist democracy will in the long term clearly be beneficial to its Christian population, but the process to get there is fraught with danger.

What Hezbollah have actually said

It’s well worth looking at what Hezbollah have actually said in response – as the language they use tells us much about their mindset and long term goals:

1.       They have claimed it is illegal to disarm them. As the Taif agreement which ended the Lebanese civil war, speaks of ending Israeli occupation of Lebanon and spreading Lebanese sovereignty over all its territories – which they claim to be doing. However, that agreement says this is the role of the Lebanese armed forces – with all other militias to be disarmed.

2.    They also play identity politics by claiming to speak for Lebanon’s entire Shi’a community, who they assert are a targeted and oppressed minority, a claim the Lebanese foreign minster has just robustly rejected pointing out Shi’a have the same rights as all other Lebanese citizens. In fact, Hezbollah have long been the most powerful political force in Lebanon and as a previous Lindisfarne Analysis noted, it is Hezbollah who have targeted other minorities, including Christians and were strongly suspected of involvement in the recent abduction and murder of Christian politicians. 

3. Hezbollah have described the government’s decision to disarm them as a “sin” which will lead to civil war. In other words, they are asserting that they have a God-given right to bear arms – as part of the jihad they are engaged in. They actually described their weapons as “sacred” and the “weapons of Allah” – which appears to be an allusion to Q8:59-60

“The infidels should not think that they can bypass (the law of God). Surely they cannot get away.

Prepare against them whatsoever arms and cavalry you can muster, that you may strike terror in (the hearts of) the enemies of God and your own.”

4.   Finally, in a 15 August TV broadcast Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Na’im Qassem compared the coming fight with the Lebanese government to the battle of Kerbala in 680 CE saying “We will wage a war like the war in Karbala, if needed”. The latter was fought for the leadership of the Islamic community between Hussein, the son of Ali the fourth Caliph and Muw’awiya the Islamic governor of Syria. The battle led to the Sunni/Shi’a split with the annual Shi’a festival of Moharram venerating Hussain who was killed in the battle as a martyr. As such, what Hezbollah were threatening was not just a Lebanese civil war, but implicitly a wider Shi’a-Sunni war across the Middle East. Significantly, Qassem almost certainly had Iran’s approval for making this statement, as the previous day he had met Ali Laranji, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. While Iranian proxies in both Iraq and Yemen voiced their support.

 Why this matters for Christians

This matters for two really important reasons. First, Hezbollah’s Iranian backed threat to reignite the Lebanese civil war needs to be taken seriously. As we have noted previously, the result of a weakened Iran has been the specific targeting of Christians there. It is likely that a weakened Hezbollah will act in a similar manner.

Secondly, Lebanon is now one of the last remaining places of refuge for Christians fleeing jihadist violence elsewhere in the Middle East. If Hezbollah wins a fight for control of Lebanon and creates the Iranian style Islamic state it aspires to, the question needs to be asked where will be left for Middle East Christians to flee to?

Please pray for Lebanon and its Christian minority