What we are seeing across the Middle East, is that in both Iran and areas controlled by Iranian-backed Islamist groups, Christians are already experiencing increased persecution, with the present war between Israel/US and Iran likely to substantially increase this.

Iran

Christians in Iran desperately want change, but no one wishes war on their country. However, because in the eyes of many Muslims, Christians are viewed as being aligned with the west, they are particularly vulnerable at the moment. By March last year, there had already been a six-fold increase in the number of Iranian Christians arrested since the standoff war between Israel and Iran; then in June 2025 Israel and the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, with reports suggesting an even harsher crackdown followed. Since then, there has been the massive and often lethal crackdown on street the protests that began at the end of December, when the regime killed thousands of ordinary people. And now we have actual major war. 

It is very difficult to know what is actually going on in Iran, as the government has sought to cut off communications with the outside world, including shutting down the internet. However, the regime has recently announced it will show no leniency to those arrested during the January street protests. It has begun executing a number of them, having found them guilty of “Moharebeh” (waging war against God). As this is one of the offences Christians are frequently charged with, it raises the possibility that they could begin judicially executing Christians, something the regime has not officially done since the execution of Rev Hossein Soodmand in 1990.

Yemen

A similar situation exists in Yemen, whose Shi’a Houthi rebels are closely aligned with Iran. Even in the few months before the present US/Israel war with Iran began, there were reports that around 20 Yemeni Christians had disappeared after being arbitrarily detained by Houthi authorities. That situation is now likely to get worse.

Lebanon

Lebanon is a delicate balance of Christian, Sunni and Shi’a populations, as well as smaller Druze element. Anything that upsets that balance risks plunging the country back into a re-run of the 1975-90 civil war which cost at least 100,000 lives and displaced an estimated one million others.

The Shi’a organization, Hezbollah, which is a proscribed terrorist organization in many western countries, was set up by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps around 1983 as a means of spreading the Iranian Islamic revolution abroad. When the new Iranian Supreme Leader was announced, they immediately swore loyalty to him.

As soon as the present US/Israel war with Iran started, Hezbollah immediately began firing rockets and drones – not just at Israel but also at any western targets, including, an RAF base in Cyprus. Despite the November 2024 ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government stating that Hezbollah should both disarm and move north of the Litani river (20 miles from Lebanon’s southern border), it has failed to do so. Hezbollah has ignored similar agreements in the past. Many of the villages in this area are Christian – and have now been evacuated for a second time in two years as a result of the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, while some who opted to stay, have been killed in the crossfire.

The unseen aspect of what is happening in Iran

Whilst it is incredibly difficult to get accurate information out of Iran, there is a bigger picture, somewhat like the underside of a Persian carpet – unseen, but important.

This is that since the 1979 Iranian revolution, the imposition of an extreme authoritarian Islamist state has led to a very significant growth of the Christian church in Iran. That growth has predominantly been from those of Muslim family backgrounds. These Christians have faced huge risks both from honour killings by their families as well as from the Iranian state – apostasy is a criminal offence in Iran, which potentially carries the death penalty.

We also know from academic research, which has been done on both Iran and neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, that when the level of Islamisation is progressively increased in a country, when that country experiences a national crisis, people typically react in one of two opposite ways.

Some, concluding Islam is not delivering a better, more just society, explore other options, such as the Christian faith. Others react in the opposite direction, concluding that their nation’s observance in lacking, and seek to bring in even stricter, more radical forms of islamisation.

That is the polarized situation that Christians in Iran are likely to be facing now. Both an increasing disillusionment among many of their neighbours, whilst at the same time many supporters of the regime becoming more radicalized, and more hardened in the way they view Christians.

In short, that is a situation in which persecution of Christians is likely to increase.

Please pray for Christians in Iran and other countries of the Middle East